According to Matt Brown (as I recall):
1. The 3 FCS schools currently most likely to move to FBS (CUSA) are Tarleton State, EKU and McNeese St.
2. NDSU and SDSU are only interested in the Mountain West. If Boise State and/or San Diego State ever move to the Big 12.
Doesn't surprise me at all about NDSU & SDSU.
As for the others, I think he was referring to the schools who would immediately accept if invited, and not necessarily the schools most likely to get invited.
Everybody knows EKU wants to go. They started prepping for FBS almost as soon as WKU moved up. (Though they may have had to wait for an administration change... I'm hazy on that, but it seems like at least one president since then was lukewarm on FBS, which caused them to fall behind more than their fans wanted.) Regardless, they've wanted it as bad as JSU, and for similar reasons. If they get an invite, they'll accept immediately.
As for their chances? Everyone blames WKU for "keeping them out" but most WKU fans I've spoken to (none, admittedly, in positions of power) seem to feel that EKU's been denied for other reasons:
1) The "old" CUSA wasn't interested in FCS move-ups (it took Armageddon for JSU and SHSU to make the cut)...
2) EKU's still in the process of upgrading some key facilities...
3) EKU has been largely non-competitive in football, and basketball's seen more down years than good years...
4) Universally, the WKU fans had thought the Sun Belt was going to provide EKU's path to FBS (The Belt had expressed interest during several past expansions.)...
5) CUSA doesn't want to go past 9 members until a) a new media deal is worked out and b) the NCAA decides on the new CFP/March Madness payout structure, and replacing UAB in the Birmingham market (JSU) and multiple teams in east Texas (SHSU) was more of an immediate need than adding a second Kentucky team... NMSU was already FBS, and provides a much-needed travel partner for UTEP, and Liberty was also already FBS, and has been very strong competitively in all sports (especially the Big Two revenue sports)...
A few WKU fans did express hesitancy to add another Kentucky team, feeling that FBS is a different animal than FCS, and except for very large states, generally speaking, CUSA should only have one representative in each state. I don't think the WKU administrators or CUSA officials share this belief, since it runs contrary to the only thing that truly matters to them: making obscene piles of cash.
Most people believe if WKU is poached, CUSA already has EKU on speed dial.
The question is, if CUSA expands to 10, who gets THAT call? EKU will definitely be a frontrunner, but they'll probably rule out some others before calling the Colonels.
Like EKU, McNeese wants to go. Their president said as much just a few weeks ago. But everyone's focus right now is on rebuilding Lake Charles, not changing subdivisions. The Cowboys negotiated a "OK, we'll stay for now" deal with the Southland which helps in that regard, placing several key conference events in Lake Charles. Would they still jump if invited? Probably, but they'd prefer that invitation to come in 3-5 years rather than right at this minute.
In McNeese's corner, they'd provide a team in the West without going too deep into Texas. They have a great fan base, and they'd be within an easy drive of both SHSU and La Tech without being in either's backyard.
The biggest negative for McNeese is their recent lack of competitiveness in football and (especially) hoops. The Cowboys are currently ranked #308 (KenPom) and #303 (NET). That's not the way to win the hearts of CUSA administrators who are looking at the new conference makeup and thinking, "Wow, guys... we're going to be good in basketball."
And then there's Tarleton. Mr. Moneybags in a part of Texas expected to grow exponentially over the next 10 years. Sure, they're still transitioning from D-II, but they want to keep going.
I'm not sold on the Texans, but that's mostly because I've never been to Stephenville. Their name keeps coming up, though, so there must be something brewing there. Interesting sidenote: The Texans' 2022 NSD Signing Class was made up entirely of transfers. They're building for now, not the future. Definitely an interesting school to watch.
The biggest negative for Tarleton, apart from their D-II transitional status, is their location. They're kind of like JSU, in that they're an easy drive from multiple cities and metroplexes, but they're not actually located WITHIN a city. But as I noted above, the Stephenville area is primed for a Texas-sized population explosion, so in 10-20 years, Austin, Abilene, and Dallas-FTW will be one huge conglomerated urban area, and Stephenville will sit in a place of power directly in the middle. (You heard it here first.)
I could see CUSA inviting Tarleton over McNeese, if only because their MBB program is progressing fairly well through the transition. (Currently ranked in the 180s in both KenPom and NET.) They're not really "close" to anyone, though. Sam is the closest, at 3 1/2 hours away. But they'd add a middle Texas presence to CUSA's current far west and far east footprint. I guess that's something.