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Post by onefansopinion on Nov 6, 2023 13:06:04 GMT -6
Each of the first teams listed below have six losses going into Week 11 of the season. If they lose this week, they become Bowl Ineligible.
Their opponents are listed second. We want them to win the games.
Six losses
North Texas @ SMU
Tulsa @ Tulane
Temple @ South Florida
Charlotte v Memphis
UAB @ Navy
Baylor @ Kansas St
Indiana @ Illinois
Michigan St @ Ohio State
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Buffalo v Ohio
San Diego St at Colorado St – The loser of this game becomes Bowl Ineligible
New Mexico @ Boise St
Hawaii v Air Force
Stanford @ Oregon St
California v Washington St
Arkansas v Auburn
South Carolina v Vandy
Army v Holy Cross
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Post by Whup Em All on Nov 7, 2023 9:06:11 GMT -6
Is there any way San Diego State and Colorado State can BOTH lose this weekend?
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Post by Whup Em All on Nov 7, 2023 9:35:30 GMT -6
SMU should easily beat UNT.
Tulane should easily beat Tulsa.
Temple and USF are evenly matched. If USF loses, they'll fall to 6 losses.
Memphis should easily beat Charlotte.
UAB and Navy are evenly matched. If Navy loses, they'll fall to 6 losses.
Kansas State should beat Baylor.
Indiana and Illinois are evenly matched. If Illinois loses, they'll fall to 6 losses.
Ohio State should mop the floor with Michigan State.
Western Michigan and Central Michigan are fairly evenly matched. If they fail to win, Central would drop to 5 losses.
Ohio should beat Buffalo, but it may be close. If they fail to win, Ohio would drop to 4 losses.
Boise State should beat New Mexico, but if they fail to win, the Broncos would drop to 6 losses.
Air Force should mop the floor with Hawai'i.
Oregon State should easily beat Stanford.
Cal and Washington State are evenly matched. If they fail to win, the Cougars would drop to 6 losses.
Arkansas and Auburn are fairly evenly matched. If the Tigers fail to win, they'd drop to 5 losses.
Vanderbilt (already eliminated) isn't going to beat South Carolina. They'd need to find a defense first. The Lessers survive another week.
Holy Cross has a decent chance against Army, but I think West Point has already been eliminated. Their schedule includes 2 FCS teams (Holy Cross and Del State), so they needed 7 wins to be bowl eligible.
So by my count, out of these 18 games:
1 team (Army) is already eliminated.
1 team is guaranteed to be eliminated this week (SDSU vs CSU).
7 teams will almost certainly be eliminated this week.
8 games are up for grabs. In 5 of those, if a team isn't eliminated, the losing team will fall to 6 losses. In 2 more, they'd fall to 5 losses.
1 game is likely to end in disappointment if you're rooting for bowl elimination.
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Post by troysux on Nov 7, 2023 14:23:31 GMT -6
We need to hope San Diego St beats Colorado St.
SDSU is at San Jose St (4-5) and hosts Fresno St. (8-1).
Colorado St hosts Nevada (2-7) and is at Hawaii (3-7).
SDSU has a better chance of losing one of the last two than CSU does.
SJSU plays Fresno this week, so SDSU can do us a favor by winning two straight before dashing their fans’ hopes in the last game against Fresno.
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Post by troysux on Nov 8, 2023 6:17:39 GMT -6
A note on Army. Last year, NMSU had a game canceled after a guy on the other team died the week of the game. So they scheduled an FCS team at the last minute to finish 6-6 with two FCS wins. The NCAA said they couldn’t go to a bowl but they appealed since it wasn’t their fault and got a special waiver.
So Army is definitely out even if they finish 6-6 and would have to appeal or have a high APR.
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Post by frenchoftn on Nov 8, 2023 18:48:34 GMT -6
Last year NMSU was granted alternative eligibility based on a 5-6 record, logic being that a 5-6 record is better than a 5-7 record. The game against Valporaiso was not even scheduled until after NCAA agreed that NMSU would be eligible over a 5-7 team.
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Post by Whup Em All on Nov 9, 2023 9:43:17 GMT -6
Last year NMSU was granted alternative eligibility based on a 5-6 record, logic being that a 5-6 record is better than a 5-7 record. The game against Valporaiso was not even scheduled until after NCAA agreed that NMSU would be eligible over a 5-7 team. The thing is, NMSU was given leeway by the NCAA because the second FCS game was only necessary due to fill a vacancy caused by a cancellation out of the Aggies' hands. Army, as far as I know, intentionally scheduled two FCS games. Not at all the same situation, and I'd be surprised to see them granted a waiver. |
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Post by jsu02 on Nov 9, 2023 10:09:58 GMT -6
D-II?
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Post by frenchoftn on Nov 9, 2023 10:48:42 GMT -6
Last year NMSU was granted alternative eligibility based on a 5-6 record, logic being that a 5-6 record is better than a 5-7 record. The game against Valporaiso was not even scheduled until after NCAA agreed that NMSU would be eligible over a 5-7 team. The thing is, NMSU was given leeway by the NCAA because the second D-II game was only necessary due to fill a vacancy caused by a cancellation out of the Aggies' hands. Army, as far as I know, intentionally scheduled two D-II games. Not at all the same situation, and I'd be surprised to see them granted a waiver. You are correct about the situation not being the same. But the reason is because of NMSU’s record being 5-6 versus 5-7, the 2d FCS (not D-II) game was not a consideration and was not even necessary. NMSU scheduled the game after approval for bowl eligibility to have the 12th game day experience, but they did not have to schedule that game at all if they did not want to. |
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Post by Whup Em All on Nov 9, 2023 12:32:17 GMT -6
Guys, I've been working nonstop the past few weeks and my brain is shutting down.
I do know the difference between D-II and FCS. I promise.
:headdesk:
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Post by troysux on Nov 11, 2023 8:04:48 GMT -6
Cal beating Washington State would be a better outcome. That would give Wazzu six losses and they have undefeated Washington in two weeks. Next week they have Prime Time U (4-5) so we don’t need them winning.
Prime and his now empty bandwagon have Arizona (6-3) today and end with Utah (7-2).
Next week, Cal has Stanford (3-6) and then UCLA (6-3). Stanford has Oregon State today so the Fighting Trees are likely done.
Following all these connections can make your head explode.
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