Post by Whup Em All on Nov 29, 2023 10:51:27 GMT -6
Just a quick post to see what we have and where we might be going.
With Delaware on board as No. 11, everyone expects a 12th team to be announced very soon. But rumors are beginning to swirl that CUSA's ultimate goal is to move on to 14. The only question is whether they'd do this right away or wait a couple of years after the announcement of No. 12. Things are changing so fast, I'm leaning toward the former.
Officially Announced CUSA Teams, listed roughly east to west:
(11 total - 7 east, 4 west.)
Delaware
Liberty
FIU
Kennesaw St
Jax St
MTSU
WKU
La Tech
Sam Houston St
NMSU
UTEP
What's Needed:
Until the addition of Delaware, it was expected that the conference was aiming to create geographically tight east and west divisions. But the Blue Hens kind of muck up the works there, especially if the upcoming 12th team is in the West. (There's a discussion about this over in the football forum.)
This suggests that regional groupings are not in the league office's plans, at least as it pertains to determining conference championships. (The SEC has similarly done away with divisions.) There are other, more complicated ways of drawing up schedules to ease travel, and that's probably where CUSA is going.
The positive here is that we no longer will need to follow some arbitrary formula ("2 west teams plus 1 east team") to achieve an ethereal regional balance. The league can simply focus on the candidates themselves and add whomever it makes the most sense to add.
That said, there's still the question of keeping the conference members happy. If all the additions come from the northeast, the western teams are not going to be happy. There will need to be additions on both sides; we simply won't be bound to have a "perfect" balance. With that in mind...
Where There's Smoke There's Fire Candidates:
(These two would bring us to 13 teams - 8 east, 5 west.)
UMass (FBS indy)(east) - Even UMass fans feel this could be happening, though some rumors say the poor academic fit could put an end to it. Minutemen football is as bad as it gets, though they were an FCS power in the olden times. They have a great basketball history, and they won the 2021 ice hockey national championship. Not that CUSA sponsors ice hockey... Regardless, they're dominant in multiple OLY sports. Don't be fooled by the bad football.
Tarleton St (west) - Everyone outside Texas loves them. Everyone inside Texas is like "WTF?!" They are definitely a growing university with an exploding athletics program, though. Plenty of money backing them as well. Football would've made FCS playoffs if they were eligible (2023 was still a D2 transitional year) and men's hoops is currently #166 KenPom. Other sports need to step it up.
Candidates for the 14th Spot:
(Only one spot available, regardless of geography, unless UMass falls through.)
Temple (FBS - AAC)(east) - There were wild rumors about this one when Delaware was announced, but those have died down. This would be a longshot at best, since CUSA can't match AAC revenue. Owls football is terrible and they only average 13K in attendance, but football isn't what people are looking at with Temple. They're a basketball school. (They're currently a disappointing #163 KenPom, but they average 5K+ attendance.) They don't have diamond sports, and the only OLY sport they're dominant in is tennis. I just don't see it.
NCAT (east) - One of the best possible travel partners for Liberty, and would be the only HBCU in FBS. But their FBS push seems to have stalled due to finances. Terribly weak OLY sports don't help their cause. Men's hoops is #360 KenPom out of 362 teams. Ouch. For CUSA, that's a fatal flaw, and I don't see this ever happening.
Willam & Mary (east) - As with WCU, this is more of a fan board suggestion. Liberty folks would love this, since it would give them an in-state rival in CUSA. But their football is mediocre, basketball is terrible (#312 KenPom), and while they're strong in baseball (89 RPI) that's not really the sport that drives all-sports expansion. I'd rate this a "no".
Western Carolina (east) - I've heard absolutely no hard rumors about the Catamounts, but their name has been mentioned on fan boards once or twice. Football runs cold to lukewarm (#23 in FCS this season). Basketball is good (#126 KenPom). OLY sports are occasionally dominant. And they have a great band who'd actually warrant sending the full Southerners to Cullowhee. But there's not much smoke around WCU, let alone fire. I don't see this happening.
EKU (east) - We know these guys. If they only had a market, they probably would've been picked over Sammy or Kenny.
FGCU (east) - This would be a non-football add, and would ONLY happen if a football-only addition was made. I don't think that's in the league's plans, though, so don't expect much to happen here. Besides, Dunk City was a long time ago, and FGCU's #230 KenPom isn't going to turn many heads.
ETSU (east) - Another relatively common fan board suggestion, but those suggestions have died down with ETSU's recent struggles in football and basketball (#245 KenPom). They're decent enough in baseball, but by no means are they a powerhouse. There's not really a lot going for them except for a good spot in the footprint. I don't see this one happening.
UTC (east) - Fan boards love the Mocs as a target. UTC would bring the Chattanooga market, which is surprisingly in the Top 100 nationally. They'd be an instant rival for Jax State, MTSU, KSU, and maybe even WKU. But Moc football is historically on the good side of mediocre and their attendance is poor even on their better years. They do have solid-to-strong hoops most years (currently #185 KenPom) but do not field a baseball team. Most other sports are solid. Not a home run, maybe, but would be a very popular add.
FAMU (east) - The Rattlers used to be FBS and dropped back down to FCS. Some fan boards have pushed for their return, but there's not really a good reason for CUSA to add them. Their only positive would be the politics of adding an HBCU, but they don't offer much beyond that. Basketball is especially bad (#336 KenPom). Baseball is competitive, but as with Bill & Mary, that's not enough to warrant their addition.
Jackson State (west) - This one has cooled down dramatically with the exodus of Coach Prime, but some still mention it. Decent enough football, but with a couple of exceptions, they're really poor in most other sports. As with NCAT and FAMU, they'd be the only HBCU at the FBS level, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to warrant consideration. They're just not ready.
Missouri State (west) - When it comes to Mo St, you either love or hate them. There is a lot to love about them. If they moved up, they'd become one of only two FBS programs in the state of Missouri. (The other is rumored to be playing in the SEC East, but some people insist that's just crazy talk.) It's an academically strong school and, apart from some solidly mediocre football, they're exceptionally strong athletically. They'd certainly pair well with the likes of Delaware. The knock on Mo St is that their online fans (generally speaking) tend to be obnoxiously arrogant jerks who feel they're above the likes of CUSA. If a vacancy opened up above us, they'd be knocking everyone else out of the way to fill it. They have no existing connection with anyone in the conference, from Texas to Louisiana to Kentucky and Tennessee. They'd just be here to fill a space. And while they'd fill it admirably, it's hard not to wonder if other, lesser schools might be much better fits in the long term.
McNeese State (west) - McNeese used to be a powerhouse athletic program, but their football team hasn't sniffed power of any sort since Jax State punched them hard in the nose during our 2013 playoff run. The Cowboys have a great fan base and a perfect location in the footprint, their men's hoops has turned it up recently (#88 KenPom), and their baseball is very solid (131 RPI). Importantly, their administration is very vocal in support of an FBS move, so this one is definitely a possibility. I just don't believe people trust Louisiana to fund another FBS program as long as ULM exists.
SFA (west) - Administrative struggles have been the only thing keeping the Lumberjacks down. In many ways, they were more prepared for a move to FBS than Sammy was. Now that they've gotten a solid revenue foundation (joining the University of Texas system in September) things are beginning to look up for our friends in Nacogdoches. Football isn't historically great, but has been decent in recent years. Basketball, though, is typically very strong (#95 KenPom). The problem for SFA is that their struggles may have let other programs (Tarleton) catch up to and even pass them, and with CUSA pushing eastward with teams like Delaware and possibly UMass, the available slots are disappearing rapidly. They'll need to turn it up in a hurry if they want to move to CUSA.
Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian (west) - I'm putting these two together simply because I don't believe either is a realistic option. Neither really fits the general profile of CUSA, and while they can (and have) been strong in multiple sports, neither is the first name you think of when it comes to strong FBS candidates. They appear all the time on fan boards, though, so someone out there loves them. I'm just not one of them.
With Delaware on board as No. 11, everyone expects a 12th team to be announced very soon. But rumors are beginning to swirl that CUSA's ultimate goal is to move on to 14. The only question is whether they'd do this right away or wait a couple of years after the announcement of No. 12. Things are changing so fast, I'm leaning toward the former.
Officially Announced CUSA Teams, listed roughly east to west:
(11 total - 7 east, 4 west.)
Delaware
Liberty
FIU
Kennesaw St
Jax St
MTSU
WKU
La Tech
Sam Houston St
NMSU
UTEP
What's Needed:
Until the addition of Delaware, it was expected that the conference was aiming to create geographically tight east and west divisions. But the Blue Hens kind of muck up the works there, especially if the upcoming 12th team is in the West. (There's a discussion about this over in the football forum.)
This suggests that regional groupings are not in the league office's plans, at least as it pertains to determining conference championships. (The SEC has similarly done away with divisions.) There are other, more complicated ways of drawing up schedules to ease travel, and that's probably where CUSA is going.
The positive here is that we no longer will need to follow some arbitrary formula ("2 west teams plus 1 east team") to achieve an ethereal regional balance. The league can simply focus on the candidates themselves and add whomever it makes the most sense to add.
That said, there's still the question of keeping the conference members happy. If all the additions come from the northeast, the western teams are not going to be happy. There will need to be additions on both sides; we simply won't be bound to have a "perfect" balance. With that in mind...
Where There's Smoke There's Fire Candidates:
(These two would bring us to 13 teams - 8 east, 5 west.)
UMass (FBS indy)(east) - Even UMass fans feel this could be happening, though some rumors say the poor academic fit could put an end to it. Minutemen football is as bad as it gets, though they were an FCS power in the olden times. They have a great basketball history, and they won the 2021 ice hockey national championship. Not that CUSA sponsors ice hockey... Regardless, they're dominant in multiple OLY sports. Don't be fooled by the bad football.
Tarleton St (west) - Everyone outside Texas loves them. Everyone inside Texas is like "WTF?!" They are definitely a growing university with an exploding athletics program, though. Plenty of money backing them as well. Football would've made FCS playoffs if they were eligible (2023 was still a D2 transitional year) and men's hoops is currently #166 KenPom. Other sports need to step it up.
Candidates for the 14th Spot:
(Only one spot available, regardless of geography, unless UMass falls through.)
Temple (FBS - AAC)(east) - There were wild rumors about this one when Delaware was announced, but those have died down. This would be a longshot at best, since CUSA can't match AAC revenue. Owls football is terrible and they only average 13K in attendance, but football isn't what people are looking at with Temple. They're a basketball school. (They're currently a disappointing #163 KenPom, but they average 5K+ attendance.) They don't have diamond sports, and the only OLY sport they're dominant in is tennis. I just don't see it.
NCAT (east) - One of the best possible travel partners for Liberty, and would be the only HBCU in FBS. But their FBS push seems to have stalled due to finances. Terribly weak OLY sports don't help their cause. Men's hoops is #360 KenPom out of 362 teams. Ouch. For CUSA, that's a fatal flaw, and I don't see this ever happening.
Willam & Mary (east) - As with WCU, this is more of a fan board suggestion. Liberty folks would love this, since it would give them an in-state rival in CUSA. But their football is mediocre, basketball is terrible (#312 KenPom), and while they're strong in baseball (89 RPI) that's not really the sport that drives all-sports expansion. I'd rate this a "no".
Western Carolina (east) - I've heard absolutely no hard rumors about the Catamounts, but their name has been mentioned on fan boards once or twice. Football runs cold to lukewarm (#23 in FCS this season). Basketball is good (#126 KenPom). OLY sports are occasionally dominant. And they have a great band who'd actually warrant sending the full Southerners to Cullowhee. But there's not much smoke around WCU, let alone fire. I don't see this happening.
EKU (east) - We know these guys. If they only had a market, they probably would've been picked over Sammy or Kenny.
FGCU (east) - This would be a non-football add, and would ONLY happen if a football-only addition was made. I don't think that's in the league's plans, though, so don't expect much to happen here. Besides, Dunk City was a long time ago, and FGCU's #230 KenPom isn't going to turn many heads.
ETSU (east) - Another relatively common fan board suggestion, but those suggestions have died down with ETSU's recent struggles in football and basketball (#245 KenPom). They're decent enough in baseball, but by no means are they a powerhouse. There's not really a lot going for them except for a good spot in the footprint. I don't see this one happening.
UTC (east) - Fan boards love the Mocs as a target. UTC would bring the Chattanooga market, which is surprisingly in the Top 100 nationally. They'd be an instant rival for Jax State, MTSU, KSU, and maybe even WKU. But Moc football is historically on the good side of mediocre and their attendance is poor even on their better years. They do have solid-to-strong hoops most years (currently #185 KenPom) but do not field a baseball team. Most other sports are solid. Not a home run, maybe, but would be a very popular add.
FAMU (east) - The Rattlers used to be FBS and dropped back down to FCS. Some fan boards have pushed for their return, but there's not really a good reason for CUSA to add them. Their only positive would be the politics of adding an HBCU, but they don't offer much beyond that. Basketball is especially bad (#336 KenPom). Baseball is competitive, but as with Bill & Mary, that's not enough to warrant their addition.
Jackson State (west) - This one has cooled down dramatically with the exodus of Coach Prime, but some still mention it. Decent enough football, but with a couple of exceptions, they're really poor in most other sports. As with NCAT and FAMU, they'd be the only HBCU at the FBS level, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to warrant consideration. They're just not ready.
Missouri State (west) - When it comes to Mo St, you either love or hate them. There is a lot to love about them. If they moved up, they'd become one of only two FBS programs in the state of Missouri. (The other is rumored to be playing in the SEC East, but some people insist that's just crazy talk.) It's an academically strong school and, apart from some solidly mediocre football, they're exceptionally strong athletically. They'd certainly pair well with the likes of Delaware. The knock on Mo St is that their online fans (generally speaking) tend to be obnoxiously arrogant jerks who feel they're above the likes of CUSA. If a vacancy opened up above us, they'd be knocking everyone else out of the way to fill it. They have no existing connection with anyone in the conference, from Texas to Louisiana to Kentucky and Tennessee. They'd just be here to fill a space. And while they'd fill it admirably, it's hard not to wonder if other, lesser schools might be much better fits in the long term.
McNeese State (west) - McNeese used to be a powerhouse athletic program, but their football team hasn't sniffed power of any sort since Jax State punched them hard in the nose during our 2013 playoff run. The Cowboys have a great fan base and a perfect location in the footprint, their men's hoops has turned it up recently (#88 KenPom), and their baseball is very solid (131 RPI). Importantly, their administration is very vocal in support of an FBS move, so this one is definitely a possibility. I just don't believe people trust Louisiana to fund another FBS program as long as ULM exists.
SFA (west) - Administrative struggles have been the only thing keeping the Lumberjacks down. In many ways, they were more prepared for a move to FBS than Sammy was. Now that they've gotten a solid revenue foundation (joining the University of Texas system in September) things are beginning to look up for our friends in Nacogdoches. Football isn't historically great, but has been decent in recent years. Basketball, though, is typically very strong (#95 KenPom). The problem for SFA is that their struggles may have let other programs (Tarleton) catch up to and even pass them, and with CUSA pushing eastward with teams like Delaware and possibly UMass, the available slots are disappearing rapidly. They'll need to turn it up in a hurry if they want to move to CUSA.
Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian (west) - I'm putting these two together simply because I don't believe either is a realistic option. Neither really fits the general profile of CUSA, and while they can (and have) been strong in multiple sports, neither is the first name you think of when it comes to strong FBS candidates. They appear all the time on fan boards, though, so someone out there loves them. I'm just not one of them.
