Post by Whup Em All on May 13, 2022 11:49:23 GMT -6
A tweet I saw this morning got me thinking... is there any combination of realignment dominoes falling which could result in JSU being invited to the American Conference?
My gut reaction on reading the tweet was, "Not a chance."
But upon further reflection, I'd like to amend that reaction to "Not a chance on God's green earth."
First, some background. The tweet in question suggested that the AAC would lose a couple teams to the Big 12, they'd commit to expanding to 16 teams, and they'd then raid CUSA, including Jax State, which he said, would serve as a "travel partner or rival for UAB".
Now, I love the idea. Really, I do. UAB-JSU has the potential to be a great rivalry, especially now that the UAB-troy state rivalry has kind of trailed off. (The trojans are more focused on USA, since they're easier to beat.)
But the schools in the American have huge endowments (we don't), they're primarily in urban markets (we're not), and they tend to have high-end academic reputations (we have some nice programs, but let's be real...).
We're just not a good fit. At all.
But let's say the B12 expansion does leave the AAC needing teams, and let's say they DO commit to 16 teams. (Perhaps to lower travel costs or to increase their inventory as part of a lucrative TV deal.)
The two most likely teams out the door in the AAC would be Memphis and USF. That'd cost the conference a travel partner for FAU, and would leave a gaping hole in the center of the footprint (which is why making JSU a travel partner for UAB seems reasonable).
Let's address the travel partner for FAU first. The easy choice here, and one I heartily endorse, is to take FIU. That drops CUSA to 7 teams.
The gaping hole north of UAB could be solved by adding MTSU. The Blue Raiders aren't a perfect fit philosophically for the American, but they're a very strong, established CUSA program, and would fill the center part of the footprint quite nicely. That drops CUSA to 6 teams.
Here's where it gets muddy. The AAC has one football-only program (Navy) who is too valuable to lose. They also have one non-FB program (Wichita State) to balance things out. The Shockers are also invaluable, especially in hoops and baseball.
The problem is, their FB-only program is in the East, and their non-FB program is in the West. What a freaking mess.
So at this point, AAC football would have 6 teams in the West and 8 in the East. AAC OLY would have 7 teams in the West and 7 in the East. They need to find two more teams, but balancing the West in football would throw OLY sports out of balance. Keeping OLY balanced would make football even more unbalanced. Maybe they could add a team (kind of) in the middle, like Arkansas State? Arkansas State could play in the West for football and in the East for OLY sports. That would give the AAC 7 football teams in the West and 8 OLY programs in the East. They could then focus their search for No. 16 on another western team.
That could lead them to double-dip from the Sun Belt and take Louisiana-Lafayette, or, if they were willing to go the FCS route, they could grab Mo State. Either way, CUSA would be safe from the AAC unless they had to resort to taking La Tech. I don't think UTEP or NMSU would be on the table.
If the Sun Belt did take a double hit, losing Ark State and LA-La, I'm not sure if they'd come after any CUSA teams as replacements. La Tech might be a candidate, with LA-La gone, but I'm honestly not sure if they'd be willing to go to the Belt. There's some bad blood there. SHSU wouldn't really be their speed. That's about it for CUSA teams.
They'd probably go after Mo State instead, but the SBC-West is pretty weak and probably wouldn't thrill the Bears. Honestly, the Belt would be hurting for replacements.
CUSA wouldn't exactly be in a position of strength, but would arguably be better situated for expansion, even if they wanted to go to 12 teams:
CUSA EAST
Liberty
JSU
WKU
Plus 3:
candidate - EKU
candidate - KSU
candidate - NCAT
candidate - UTC
candidate - UNA
CUSA WEST
La Tech
SHSU
NMSU
UTEP
Plus 2:
candidate - Tarleton
candidate - SFA
candidate - McNeese
candidate - UCA
candidate - Abilene Chr.
Any combination of the above teams would result in two fairly well-balanced, relatively tight geographical divisions. It would certainly be a step or two down from CUSA's current strength (if only due to the FCS move-ups) but for JSU, specifically, it'd be pretty great. That CUSA East division would be a lot of fun, regardless which 3 teams were added. (I would miss MTSU, though. No question about that.)
But back to the question that prompted all this wild speculation... no. I don't see us getting an AAC invite unless something wild happens during our first decade in the FBS. And then, I'd still be shocked.
My gut reaction on reading the tweet was, "Not a chance."
But upon further reflection, I'd like to amend that reaction to "Not a chance on God's green earth."
First, some background. The tweet in question suggested that the AAC would lose a couple teams to the Big 12, they'd commit to expanding to 16 teams, and they'd then raid CUSA, including Jax State, which he said, would serve as a "travel partner or rival for UAB".
Now, I love the idea. Really, I do. UAB-JSU has the potential to be a great rivalry, especially now that the UAB-troy state rivalry has kind of trailed off. (The trojans are more focused on USA, since they're easier to beat.)
But the schools in the American have huge endowments (we don't), they're primarily in urban markets (we're not), and they tend to have high-end academic reputations (we have some nice programs, but let's be real...).
We're just not a good fit. At all.
But let's say the B12 expansion does leave the AAC needing teams, and let's say they DO commit to 16 teams. (Perhaps to lower travel costs or to increase their inventory as part of a lucrative TV deal.)
The two most likely teams out the door in the AAC would be Memphis and USF. That'd cost the conference a travel partner for FAU, and would leave a gaping hole in the center of the footprint (which is why making JSU a travel partner for UAB seems reasonable).
Let's address the travel partner for FAU first. The easy choice here, and one I heartily endorse, is to take FIU. That drops CUSA to 7 teams.
The gaping hole north of UAB could be solved by adding MTSU. The Blue Raiders aren't a perfect fit philosophically for the American, but they're a very strong, established CUSA program, and would fill the center part of the footprint quite nicely. That drops CUSA to 6 teams.
Here's where it gets muddy. The AAC has one football-only program (Navy) who is too valuable to lose. They also have one non-FB program (Wichita State) to balance things out. The Shockers are also invaluable, especially in hoops and baseball.
The problem is, their FB-only program is in the East, and their non-FB program is in the West. What a freaking mess.
So at this point, AAC football would have 6 teams in the West and 8 in the East. AAC OLY would have 7 teams in the West and 7 in the East. They need to find two more teams, but balancing the West in football would throw OLY sports out of balance. Keeping OLY balanced would make football even more unbalanced. Maybe they could add a team (kind of) in the middle, like Arkansas State? Arkansas State could play in the West for football and in the East for OLY sports. That would give the AAC 7 football teams in the West and 8 OLY programs in the East. They could then focus their search for No. 16 on another western team.
That could lead them to double-dip from the Sun Belt and take Louisiana-Lafayette, or, if they were willing to go the FCS route, they could grab Mo State. Either way, CUSA would be safe from the AAC unless they had to resort to taking La Tech. I don't think UTEP or NMSU would be on the table.
If the Sun Belt did take a double hit, losing Ark State and LA-La, I'm not sure if they'd come after any CUSA teams as replacements. La Tech might be a candidate, with LA-La gone, but I'm honestly not sure if they'd be willing to go to the Belt. There's some bad blood there. SHSU wouldn't really be their speed. That's about it for CUSA teams.
They'd probably go after Mo State instead, but the SBC-West is pretty weak and probably wouldn't thrill the Bears. Honestly, the Belt would be hurting for replacements.
CUSA wouldn't exactly be in a position of strength, but would arguably be better situated for expansion, even if they wanted to go to 12 teams:
CUSA EAST
Liberty
JSU
WKU
Plus 3:
candidate - EKU
candidate - KSU
candidate - NCAT
candidate - UTC
candidate - UNA
CUSA WEST
La Tech
SHSU
NMSU
UTEP
Plus 2:
candidate - Tarleton
candidate - SFA
candidate - McNeese
candidate - UCA
candidate - Abilene Chr.
Any combination of the above teams would result in two fairly well-balanced, relatively tight geographical divisions. It would certainly be a step or two down from CUSA's current strength (if only due to the FCS move-ups) but for JSU, specifically, it'd be pretty great. That CUSA East division would be a lot of fun, regardless which 3 teams were added. (I would miss MTSU, though. No question about that.)
But back to the question that prompted all this wild speculation... no. I don't see us getting an AAC invite unless something wild happens during our first decade in the FBS. And then, I'd still be shocked.
