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Post by cockygolfer on Oct 8, 2023 10:21:09 GMT -6
Just think... only 2 weeks ago we were wondering if we'd get to 4 wins.
LONG way to go boys... Tuesday night will let us know where we stand.
Let's start GAMECOCK STRONG this week, my defib is running out of batteries.
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Post by troysux on Oct 8, 2023 11:08:19 GMT -6
xxx
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 8, 2023 17:37:54 GMT -6
So I've made my Excel sheet. I'm not going to post it here yet because it's still a work in progress. But it includes every FBS team, contains W/L, conferences, Wins to Eligible, Losses to Eliminated. It also includes Projected Wins, Projected Losses, and 6-Win % Chance, all from ESPN Data. I've separated all FBS teams into 7 Categories: Bowling- These teams have hit 6 wins and are fully eligible to go Bowling. Lock- These teams have not officially clinched eligibility, but have a 90% chance or greater of going Bowling. It would require an act of god for them to miss. (Ex: 5-0 Ohio State) Likely- These teams have a 70%-90% chance of going Bowling. Not quite locked, but would need a lot of weird stuff to happen to miss the postseason. (Ex: 4-2 Rutgers or 3-2 App State) Bubble- These teams have a 30%-70% chance of going Bowling. Any of these teams could make or miss. A lot of teams still live here at this point in the season. This is the category to root against. (Ex: 3-3 TCU) Unlikely- These teams have a 10%-30% chance of going Bowling. (Ex: 2-3 Michigan State) Out- These teams have NOT officially been eliminated, but have a less than 10% chance of going Bowling. It would require an act of god for them to make a bowl. (Ex: 1-6 UMass) Ineligible- These teams are officially ineligible for a bowl game in 2023. So with all that outlined, the number of teams in each category is as follows: Bowling- 5 Lock- 48 Likely- 10 Bubble- 31 Unlikely- 19 Out- 19 Ineligible- 1 So what that means is of 82 available bowl game slots, there are still 113 teams still in the running (Unlikely or better). troysux feel free to add any of this information to the original post if you want. Also if anyone has questions or some type of stat they think I should add or track in the sheet, let me know. I'll revisit it next week and make some updates.
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Post by Cleburneslim on Oct 8, 2023 18:02:35 GMT -6
So just how many teams do we need to be OUT before we’re IN?
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Post by troysux on Oct 8, 2023 18:07:53 GMT -6
Thanks for putting the list together. We definitely need the bubble teams to continue to slip and hope for a couple of the likelys to collapse. Definitely don’t need any of the outs to have an act of God. If the Duke QB can’t make it back it wouldn’t hurt my feelings. He will have a degree from Duke. Who needs football?
It will probably be November before I dive too deep into who falls into which category. There are 124 teams vying for 77 spots. I’ll wait until the herd has thinned a bit.
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 8, 2023 18:12:23 GMT -6
So just how many teams do we need to be OUT before we’re IN? 53 (including SHSU and assuming JMU has a better record than us)
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Post by Cleburneslim on Oct 8, 2023 18:17:21 GMT -6
So just how many teams do we need to be OUT before we’re IN? 53 (including SHSU and assuming JMU has a better record than us) So 34 more.
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 8, 2023 18:31:20 GMT -6
Thanks for putting the list together. We definitely need the bubble teams to continue to slip and hope for a couple of the likelys to collapse. Definitely don’t need any of the outs to have an act of God. If the Duke QB can’t make it back it wouldn’t hurt my feelings. He will have a degree from Duke. Who needs football? It will probably be November before I dive too deep into who falls into which category. There are 124 teams vying for 77 spots. I’ll wait until the herd has thinned a bit. Duke is practically guaranteed 6 wins by virtue of having Pitt and Virginia still on the schedule.
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Post by troysux on Oct 8, 2023 18:31:41 GMT -6
Note that the 19 on the “out” list aren’t officially out, they just have a very slim chance of getting to six wins. In fact, UMASS is the only one that can be officially eliminated Saturday if they lose to Penn State.
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stevo
Full Member
Posts: 735
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Post by stevo on Oct 9, 2023 16:41:39 GMT -6
So games like Georgia Tech and Miami didn't help JSU's cause.
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 10, 2023 4:58:14 GMT -6
So games like Georgia Tech and Miami didn't help JSU's cause. Correct. But Georgia Tech still has Clemson, Syracuse, UNC, and UGA to go so it's still an uphill climb for them.
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Post by troysux on Oct 10, 2023 20:57:06 GMT -6
Liberty qualified for a bowl tonight.
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Post by Whup Em All on Oct 11, 2023 8:49:45 GMT -6
We're probably about 2 weeks away from really being able to flesh out that "ineligible" list. There are a whole bunch of teams sitting at 5 losses:
Akron Arizona St (already ineligible) Ball St Kent St La Tech MTSU Nevada Sam Houston St San Jose St Southern Miss UConn UMass (6 losses) UTEP Vandy Virginia
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Post by troysux on Oct 11, 2023 10:45:30 GMT -6
On a side note, Army (currently 2-3) play two FCS teams this year so they would need seven wins to qualify since you can only count one FCS win per season.
That being said, I would assume they could be an alternate if they go 6-6 and I don’t know if they would rank higher than the transitionals or lower in deciding who to invite.
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Post by Whup Em All on Oct 11, 2023 16:32:48 GMT -6
On a side note, Army (currently 2-3) play two FCS teams this year so they would need seven wins to qualify since you can only count one FCS win per season. That being said, I would assume they could be an alternate if they go 6-6 and I don’t know if they would rank higher than the transitionals or lower in deciding who to invite. If Army goes 6-6, they'd likely get a waiver for that extra FCS game. The NCAA likes its waivers. The only way this changes is if JMU finishes undefeated and ranked. In that case, the political pressures to include them might (somehow) trump giving a bid to Army. But I still think Army would get the waiver.
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