Post by Whup Em All on May 3, 2024 10:51:48 GMT -6
Official count. No one excludes band members.
Watch the game will fall on band day and there be 20 schools there setting a record. Because of that I decline the bet . But we can one day eat plate of ribs from there . I promise I won’t fire anyone unless the ribs are dry .
Southern Miss is Homecoming, Preview Day, and Band Day, so there's your excuse for that large crowd.
I’ve witnessed that FIU doesn’t travel well. They didn’t even travel across the street to watch our game with them in Miami last season.
It's safe to say that FIU, along with UTEP and NMSU, will NEVER bring a crowd due to sheer distance. Besides, FIU struggled with fan interest at home even when they were winning Sun Belt championships. They're the one CUSA school I'd love to be poached (or drop football and move back down to the ASUN).
Of this group, only NMSU and FIU will be coming to Burgess-Snow this fall:
NMSU - This is a Wednesday night game against a distant opponent, with little name recognition outside longtime college basketball fans. This will be the smallest crowd of the year, and will really show what we can expect as a "floor" for CUSA game attendance moving forward. My guess is, 14K-15K. I'll be shocked if it's much less, and very pleasantly surprised if it draws more.
FIU - This is a Saturday game against a distant opponent absolutely no one (not even their own fans) cares about. Don't expect more than (literally) a dozen FIU fans. But it will likely be the date of the Southerners reunion, so that will pad the numbers quite a bit. We should hit 20K for this one, especially if the weather's nice.
As for the other CUSA schools:
Liberty - Always travels well, even midweek. They have solid reach across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern states, so getting a few hundred alumni to Jacksonville is not a big issue for them. So 20K+ crowds won't be unusual when they're on the home schedule.
WKU - The Tuesday game last year hurt their attendance in Jacksonville, but the game is moving to late November this year in Bowling Green, which should theoretically improve travel. Of course, with Delaware joining CUSA in 2025, no one knows where this game will fall on the schedule next time the Toppers come to Jacksonville. Still, they're a familiar enough opponent that a crowd of 17K-18K should be the norm, even on midweek games.
MTSU - The Blue Raiders support their team pretty well when they're doing well. Last year, they didn't do well at all. If the wheels haven't come off on their 2024 season by late October, we'd normally expect a solid visitor turnout in Jacksonville. But the 2024 game is on a Wednesday... that's going to hurt attendance all around. I'm hoping we can still break 16K at least. Normally, I'd put this one squarely in the guaranteed 18K-19K range.
KSU - We'll fill Fifth Third to overflowing this fall, but that says more about how pitifully small that stadium is than anything. But last time we faced KSU in Jacksonville (2022), they brought a decent crowd, and Gamecock fans turned out in droves. Combined, we drew just under 20K. As they progress in FBS and develop more fans, and as the rivalry continues to grow, this game could approach sellout numbers very quickly, even midweek. I'm calling this one a probable 22K+ draw every season.
La Tech - When they don't completely suck, La Tech has solid support. They were uncharacteristically really, really bad this past year, and still managed to bring several dozen fans to Burgess-Snow. I don't see this being a consistent 20K+ game (except when it falls on Homecoming or the Southerners reunion) but I do believe it will come close to that on most years. Let's call it 17K-18K.
Sammy - Their fans packed out Bowers stadium last fall (14,566) and last time we played at Burgess-Snow, a near-record 23,692 fans were in attendance, despite the game falling in mid-December. (That was during the amazing 2015 postseason run.) Sammy's fans want to call this game a rivalry, and they get a lot of resistance from JSU over that. But they do travel pretty well when they're motivated, despite the distance. This year's game will fall the Saturday before Thanksgiving, so we'll see how that impacts things. While I don't expect a capacity crowd, I do think we'll push 18K-19K for this one, easily. And if this series continues to be as back-and-forth and heated as years past, those numbers could grow.
Delaware - Distance should be a factor here, but it's too soon to tell. They do have a good amount of alumni in Atlanta and Chattanooga, so they could surprise us. They do at least have some name recognition going for them, so for a weekend game, a crowd around 17K-18K might be pretty standard.
Looking at the 2024 Nonconference Visitors:
Coastal - It's on a Thursday night, so the visiting crowd will be limited. But a season opener on the first Thursday of the school year is going to pack out the JSU student section. Let's hope the Gamecocks give them a good enough show that they stay through the 4th quarter and -- more importantly -- are motivated to come back in a couple weeks for the Southern Miss game.
Southern Miss - If a single Golden Eagle fan didn't show up, I still think we break 20K for this one. This is the "biggest name" opponent we've ever hosted at Burgess-Snow, even if their best days are behind them. Add in Homecoming, Preview Day, and Band Day, and this one's going to fill every available seat. (I'm honestly not sure what the capacity will be this fall, but we'll come close to that.)
If I take my guesstimates and apply them to the full 2024 home slate, we should average about 18,750 this fall. Down from 2023, but still very respectable for a G5 team. That'd rank us somewhere around the mid-80s for all FBS teams.