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Post by troysux on Oct 15, 2023 10:18:42 GMT -6
I have updated the list after the weekend games. We now have 20 in and two out, leaving 108 still in limbo. I have added a list of those that can qualify or be disqualified next week. If I have any errors, please let me know. And I have no idea why troy has two states by their name. I tried to get rid of one but couldn’t.
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 15, 2023 11:22:22 GMT -6
I've also updated my spreadsheet and added a new column that tracks % change of their 6-Win chances week to week.
Currently the breakdown in the spreadsheet is as follows (# of teams added or lost from category):
Bowling (Has hit 6 wins) - 21 (+16) Lock (90%+ Odds of Bowl) - 33 (-15) Likely (70%-90%) - 16 (+6) Bubble (30%-70%) - 25 (-6) Unlikely (10%-30%) - 14 (-5) Out (0%-10%) - 22 (+3) Ineligible - 2 (+1)
82 Bowl Spots and 95 teams on the Bubble or better.
There was lots of shuffling for a lot of teams individually (see Colorado tanking their odds/ FAU saving their season) but as a net gain/loss we had an increase of movement of teams from the lower categories to the higher end.
One thing I noticed while going though the spreadsheet this week is that one thing that could honestly determine whether we make a bowl game or not is beating South Carolina. They need to win 4 of their last 6 games and ESPN gives them a 37.8% chance of pulling it off. Jax State winning would very likely be a dagger to South Carolina's bowl hopes. Our bowl invite is likely going to come down to 1 or 2 teams missing the postseason. So if we are 1 team short, we may be looking back at the South Carolina game knowing that was our ticket to the postseason and it was in our direct control.
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Post by jsu02 on Oct 15, 2023 11:30:02 GMT -6
Maybe HCRR will use that as motivation for the SC game.
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 15, 2023 11:47:40 GMT -6
I have updated the list after the weekend games. We now have 20 in and two out, leaving 108 still in limbo. I have added a list of those that can qualify or be disqualified next week. If I have any errors, please let me know. And I have no idea why troy state state state state state state state state state state state has two states by their name. I tried to get rid of one but couldn’t. It's because there's a chat filter that replaces "Tr0y" to "tr0y state" so if you type "Tr0y State" " with Capital letters you get "tr0y state State" King_Gamecock should look at it because even when you type "tr0y state" you end up with "troy state" and any time you make an edit it just adds another "state".
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Post by King_Gamecock on Oct 15, 2023 16:56:11 GMT -6
I have updated the list after the weekend games. We now have 20 in and two out, leaving 108 still in limbo. I have added a list of those that can qualify or be disqualified next week. If I have any errors, please let me know. And I have no idea why troy state state state state state state state state state state state state has two states by their name. I tried to get rid of one but couldn’t. It's because there's a chat filter that replaces "Tr0y" to "tr0y state" so if you type "Tr0y State" " with Capital letters you get "tr0y state State" King_Gamecock should look at it because even when you type "tr0y state" you end up with "troy state state" and any time you make an edit it just adds another "state". Yeah. It's buggy. I'll work on it again. I tried using quotes but that didn't work. I kinda like the extra states lol.
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Post by warthog on Oct 16, 2023 6:24:04 GMT -6
I kinda like the extra states lol. We have to add back all the "state" that have been omitted since they tried to drop "state".
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stevo
Full Member
Posts: 735
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Post by stevo on Oct 16, 2023 7:24:09 GMT -6
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Post by troysux on Oct 16, 2023 7:29:59 GMT -6
I didn’t scroll through all that crap but did see where he thought 79 would make six wins. Does he not have us in a bowl? He think we lose out?
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stevo
Full Member
Posts: 735
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Post by stevo on Oct 16, 2023 7:37:55 GMT -6
I didn’t scroll through all that crap but did see where he thought 79 would make six wins. Does he not have us in a bowl? He think we lose out? I scrolled through the games. He has LaTech, NMSU and WKU in bowls. JSU isn't in yet, but if JSU beats LaTech and NMSU and FIU I think they have a good shot as LT and NMSU probably wont get 6 wins.
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Post by jsu02 on Oct 16, 2023 8:11:55 GMT -6
Looking at the schedules, I think MTSU has a better chance of getting in at 6-6 than La Tech. Tech still has to play @lib, @jaxst, Sammy and NMSU.
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Post by troysux on Oct 16, 2023 8:46:40 GMT -6
We can only go to a bowl if not enough qualify. The only ones we are really competing against are fellow transitionals JMU and Sam Houston. Sammy is 0-6 so they are likely out. JMU will probably have a better record than us so they would get the spot if only one is available. (An upset in Columbia could change that).
So we’d need two open spots to guarantee us a bowl if we get to six wins. If only 79 qualify then we are good even if Sammy wins out as long as we get one more win.
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Post by brother on Oct 16, 2023 9:58:29 GMT -6
If we don’t get better quarterback play, we won’t have to worry about a bowl.
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Post by Cleburneslim on Oct 16, 2023 12:23:30 GMT -6
We have to add back all the "state" that have been omitted since they tried to drop "state". I was very amused a couple weeks ago while ESPN was referring to them as troy state.
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Post by troysux on Oct 17, 2023 21:10:20 GMT -6
We are now eligible for a bowl.
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Post by JSUSoutherner on Oct 17, 2023 21:15:50 GMT -6
We are now eligible for a bowl. Big asterisk
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