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Post by King_Gamecock on Jul 5, 2022 23:15:22 GMT -6
USC is private. Stanford is private too I think. this. UNC and NC State are both ACC charter members and the conference headquarters is in North Carolina. The ACC won't easily part with the flagship university in its home state.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2022 5:23:48 GMT -6
I'm getting genuinely excited about getting to compete with teams for a national championship in a few years.
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stevo
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Post by stevo on Jul 6, 2022 5:48:10 GMT -6
USC is private. Stanford is private too I think. You're right on USC. UCLA and CAL are both public.
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Post by Whup Em All on Jul 6, 2022 10:14:53 GMT -6
My biggest issue with any scenario involving the ACC is that something has to be done about their Grant of Rights deal. It goes through 2036, and the exit fee is like $10M.
Now, I'm not fool enough to think ESPN won't be willing to "bend" substantially for any deal which benefits their properties. So ACC >> SEC is a definite possibility.
ACC >> B1G is a bit more suspect. This would involve ESPN willingly giving up a school attractive enough to catch the attention of the Super B1G. I just don't see ESPN allowing Fox Sports to gain any more power than they already have.
I think Virginia stays put in the ACC, and Stanford goes to the B1G, only because of their bazillion dollar endowment and across-the-board athletic success, combined with historical rivalries with several Big Ten heavyweights, USC & UCLA, and (if they join) ND.
I don't see Cal moving to the B1G. They just don't have anything the B1G is looking for. If there was room for them, they'd be included just to help scheduling... but there's really no room. I believe they'll join Oregon State and Washington State in the used-to-be-great PAC. The MWC will "poach" the three, but the deal will be worked out so that the new conference takes the PAC name and brand.
The PAC will then have to decide whether to go 14 teams, 16 teams, or more. If they go to 16, look UTEP and NMSU to be poached. (I don't believe the new PAC will dip to FCS for anyone. Sorry, NDSU.) If they hold at 14, this round of dominoes will be over.
Either way, I don't see Hawai'i being included in their plans, unless the conference expands past 16. (They're currently a football-only affiliate.) More than likely, the Rainbow Warriors will be forced to go independent. (This could actually benefit them, since they're a desirable road trip and schools gain an extra home game by agreeing to fly to the islands.)
NEW PAC (old MWC) (14 team version)
SOUTH DIVISION Utah St Wyoming Colorado St Air Force New Mexico UNLV San Diego St
NORTH DIVISION Washington St Boise St Oregon St Nevada Cal San Jose St Fresno
Independent: Hawai'i
Unchanged: CUSA
NEW PAC (old MWC) (16 team version)
SOUTH DIVISION Utah St Wyoming Colorado St Air Force New Mexico NMSU UTEP San Diego St
NORTH DIVISION Washington St Boise St Oregon St Nevada Cal San Jose St Fresno UNLV
Independent: Hawai'i
If -- if -- the latter happens, then CUSA will need to add two teams to get back to 9. However, as I and a few others have noted, despite losing two great hoops programs, it really tightens the footprint, and would potentially make some schools who have been reluctant to join such a spread-out conference more amenable to coming on board. (Mo St? UTC?)
It also softens the blow if JSU (or WKU) gets shifted West, should we move to divisions. Traveling a few hundred miles west to SHSU or even Tarleton State is a much easier trip than 1,000+ miles to New Mexico.
Out west, Mo State, Tarleton State, and SFA would all be invited. If Mo State turns us down, McNeese or UCA could get the call. I think SFA would say yes, and Tarleton is a definite.
We'd need two eastern teams to go to balanced east-west divisions, so EKU and UTC would get the first call. If the Mocs say no, look for KSU to get their shot. EKU is a definite.
CUSA
EAST DIVISION Liberty FIU EKU UTC (or KSU) MTSU WKU
WEST DIVISION JSU La Tech SHSU SFA Mo St (or McNeese/UCA) Tarleton St
JSU and WKU could swap places. I put the Hilltoppers in the East mainly because of their "seniority" over us. That said, they have a pretty good rivalry with La Tech and would possibly be attracted to the West if Mo St comes on board, so who knows? I do believe they'd have the first choice, so it all comes down to what they prefer.
Regardless, I think the schedules would be designed with permanent crossover rivalries in mind, so we'd play UTC/KSU and possibly MTSU every year.
I don't think CUSA would expand past 12 until any FCS call-ups will have completed their transitions. The only reason they'd go to 12 now would be to ease fears the conference is in danger of dissolving, should any other teams (WKU, MTSU, FIU) get poached.
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stevo
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Post by stevo on Jul 6, 2022 10:36:20 GMT -6
The thing that no one seems to be considering on the ACC Grant of Rights is that it is with ESPN. Well, the SEC is also in business with ESPN. ESPN could work a deal that has a receeding contract with the ACC where they give up 4 schools and there TV agreement goes down so much each year till 2036. On the other side the SEC adjusted contract with 4 new schools goes up the same amount each year till their agreement runs out.
Whup Em All....I think that 14 team Mountain-Pac conference would be interested in SMU and maybe Memphis.
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Post by Cleburneslim on Jul 6, 2022 14:22:01 GMT -6
All of this is pure outlandish speculation until we know who is actually moving.
So who is definitely moving. And who’s movement is rank rumor?
In my experience rumor is maybe 85% wrong. No matter how much you like it.
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stevo
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Post by stevo on Jul 6, 2022 14:39:50 GMT -6
All of this is pure outlandish speculation until we know who is actually moving. So who is definitely moving. And who’s movement is rank rumor? In my experience rumor is maybe 85% wrong. No matter how much you like it. Weren't message boards invented for complaining and "pure outlandish speculation"?
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Post by Whup Em All on Jul 6, 2022 14:53:26 GMT -6
The thing that no one seems to be considering on the ACC Grant of Rights is that it is with ESPN. Well, the SEC is also in business with ESPN. ESPN could work a deal that has a receeding contract with the ACC where they give up 4 schools and there TV agreement goes down so much each year till 2036. On the other side the SEC adjusted contract with 4 new schools goes up the same amount each year till their agreement runs out. Whup Em All....I think that 14 team Mountain-Pac conference would be interested in SMU and maybe Memphis. Regarding the ACC GOR: My biggest issue with any scenario involving the ACC is that something has to be done about their Grant of Rights deal. It goes through 2036, and the exit fee is like $10M. Now, I'm not fool enough to think ESPN won't be willing to "bend" substantially for any deal which benefits their properties. So ACC >> SEC is a definite possibility. ACC >> B1G is a bit more suspect. This would involve ESPN willingly giving up a school attractive enough to catch the attention of the Super B1G. I just don't see ESPN allowing Fox Sports to gain any more power than they already have. As for SMU/Memphis to the MWC/PAC... If SMU can't find a place in the Big XII, a dream which seems less and less likely every day, then I could *maybe* see them moving to the MWC/PAC, especially if the conference adopts the PAC brand. But the sad truth is, with a couple of exceptions, the schools in the new PAC wouldn't be too far beyond the ones in the American, and I don't think the SMU brand is good enough to woo the top tier PAC teams into inviting them. I'm even less convinced Memphis would be interested. They're a million miles from the MWC footprint, and TV revenues for this thing will not be enough to make up for that. I think both schools would remain (disgruntled) in the American.
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stevo
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Post by stevo on Jul 6, 2022 15:10:41 GMT -6
The thing that no one seems to be considering on the ACC Grant of Rights is that it is with ESPN. Well, the SEC is also in business with ESPN. ESPN could work a deal that has a receeding contract with the ACC where they give up 4 schools and there TV agreement goes down so much each year till 2036. On the other side the SEC adjusted contract with 4 new schools goes up the same amount each year till their agreement runs out. Whup Em All....I think that 14 team Mountain-Pac conference would be interested in SMU and maybe Memphis. Regarding the ACC GOR: My biggest issue with any scenario involving the ACC is that something has to be done about their Grant of Rights deal. It goes through 2036, and the exit fee is like $10M. Now, I'm not fool enough to think ESPN won't be willing to "bend" substantially for any deal which benefits their properties. So ACC >> SEC is a definite possibility. ACC >> B1G is a bit more suspect. This would involve ESPN willingly giving up a school attractive enough to catch the attention of the Super B1G. I just don't see ESPN allowing Fox Sports to gain any more power than they already have. As for SMU/Memphis to the MWC/PAC... If SMU can't find a place in the Big XII, a dream which seems less and less likely every day, then I could *maybe* see them moving to the MWC/PAC, especially if the conference adopts the PAC brand. But the sad truth is, with a couple of exceptions, the schools in the new PAC wouldn't be too far beyond the ones in the American, and I don't think the SMU brand is good enough to woo the top tier PAC teams into inviting them. I'm even less convinced Memphis would be interested. They're a million miles from the MWC footprint, and TV revenues for this thing will not be enough to make up for that. I think both schools would remain (disgruntled) in the American. The new Mtn/PAC would not have the top tier PAC teams, just the leftovers. The future PAC brand will not be a compliment. The new AAC is not very impressive. Basically it is SMU & Memphis then the rest. Your 14 team version of the PAC/Mtn is way better than the 2024 version of the AAC.
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Post by Cleburneslim on Jul 6, 2022 16:12:57 GMT -6
All of this is pure outlandish speculation until we know who is actually moving. So who is definitely moving. And who’s movement is rank rumor? In my experience rumor is maybe 85% wrong. No matter how much you like it. Weren't message boards invented for complaining and "pure outlandish speculation"? My point is that it’s hard even to speculate when the rumor is everyone is talking to everyone. So my question remains who is actually moving or are in actual talks with another conference?
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stevo
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Post by stevo on Jul 6, 2022 16:27:18 GMT -6
Weren't message boards invented for complaining and "pure outlandish speculation"? My point is that it’s hard even to speculate when the rumor is everyone is talking to everyone. So my question remains who is actually moving or are in actual talks with another conference? Most media people that are talking are only repeating something they heard other media people say. No original thoughts the last 2 days. Following the money will tell you who is interested in moving. All PAC 10 remaining schools are looking at preservation of income with USC and UCLA leaving. The power ACC schools are trying to figure out how they can get out of their GOR so that they might be a potential target for the SEC and a possibility of the Big 10. Schools such as Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC, Virginia, Vir Tech and maybe a couple other ACC schools. ACC schools such as Syracuse know they have no shot. Notre Dame is waiting to be offered the moon and might get it. The next domino is either Notre Dame to the Big 10 (longshot SEC) or 4-6 PAC schools joining the Big 12. The biggest losers look to be Washington State and Oregon State. Cal and Stanford are sweating also.
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Post by gemofthehills on Jul 6, 2022 20:51:20 GMT -6
Have to pretty much agree. Those below that level have to wait and see.
The last movement no one would have thought 3 schools would move to a lower level conference on their own decision but USM, Marshall and ODU did. Moral to the story never know what will happen when the cards start falling.
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Post by Cleburneslim on Jul 6, 2022 21:31:53 GMT -6
So as it stands 2 schools are moving and the rest is rumor/speculation.
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Post by Whup Em All on Jul 7, 2022 7:54:25 GMT -6
So as it stands 2 schools are moving and the rest is rumor/speculation. Yes. Only two (in this latest round) are confirmed. As for rumor and speculation, fan boards and twitter aren't the only places this is happening. I listened to a Tim Brando interview a day or two ago. He mentioned how his job requires him to have daily conversations with many of the people directly involved in these moves -- network execs, school athletic directors, etc. -- and how many of these conversations are totally off the record. He's as connected to the grapevine as any person in America. And even he was blindsided by USC and UCLA. He'd heard it was going to happen eventually. He had no idea it was going to happen NOW. My guess is, even if we had a bug in ESPN headquarters, we'd still only know less than half of what we needed to know. Add a 2nd bug over at Fox Sports, and we'd know a lot, but still not everything. That last 10-15 percent of crucial info is spread across every NCAA FBS (and some FCS) school in the country. Some schools know exactly what their move is going to be; they're just waiting on the final deal to be negotiated. Others are trying to forecast what the schools above them in the hierarchy are going to do, and frantically trying to line up contingency plans in case their own conference falls apart. The only ones sleeping soundly are those in conferences like the MAC, who enjoy relative stability and are secure in the knowledge that literally no one out there wants any of their schools. (For the record, I don't believe SEC and B1G admins are sleeping soundly. They're not worried about losing schools, of course, but they ARE worried that if they don't make all the right moves, this move to a Super 2 could blow up the good thing they've got going on. Besides, I don't know if you've ever tried sleeping on huge bags of cash, but it's not nearly as comfortable as it sounds. Very lumpy.)
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Post by Cleburneslim on Jul 7, 2022 10:43:57 GMT -6
So at what point will the big or the sec split? I’m guessing 20 yrs. or less. This all feels cyclical to me.
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