USC and UCLA to BIG

It does feel very cyclical.

I think the collapse of the super-conferences is bound to happen eventually, but as for when, it depends on how the divisions/pods are constructed, and of course, on the money.

When large conferences have split in the past, there's always been an issue of institutional identity/philosophy (e.g., the Big East non-Catholic schools breaking off into the American) or (going farther back) splits where a group of schools feels either under-represented or underpaid.

The reason the divisions/pods matter is that the schools in each division will generally have more cohesion. Look at the SBC... they're ALREADY experiencing a bit of an east-west dilemma, at least among fans, with the SBC-E fans saying things like, "Now all we need to do is get rid of Texas State! All we need to do is get rid of ULM! We should invite Duke and UNC and break off from the SBC West!" Now, to my knowledge, this hasn't infected the administrations of these schools yet. But c'mon... the newly expanded conference hasn't played a single game yet, and fans are still plotting a breakaway. Where there's smoke...

You'll hear similar things from some CUSA fans, admittedly -- "Hopefully, UTEP/NMSU will go to the MWC. Hopefully, FIU will get poached by the American or drop football and move to the ASUN." -- but there's a notable difference here. The Sun Belt has a full 14 members and two reasonably geographically-balanced divisions. CUSA is still looking at eventual expansion and currently has four teams on three "islands": UTEP/NMSU, FIU, and Liberty. Liberty at least has the benefit of being in Appalachia, so there's common ground (culturally, if not always politically) with WKU, MTSU, and JSU. But FIU is way down at the tip of Florida, with no one else near them, and El Paso and Las Cruces are a freaking long way away even from CUSA's other Texas team. Basically, CUSA is under construction, so people will naturally talk about how to make it better/tighter/more cohesive. SBC *should* already be there. That's the difference.

Back to the topic... 

If the super-SEC doesn't have enough interplay between its divisions, and if one of those divisions becomes unusually dominant, or one team (or region) becomes "too powerful" in conference discussions, or one division draws consistently huge ratings while the others land somewhere in the ratings below the big Kent State-Akron showdown... whatever it is that causes the discord, the discord will lead to an eventual split.

If the divisional structure keeps the teams playing each other at least every other year, they'll at least feel some sense of shared identity with non-divisional teams. It probably won't stop the split from happening, but it will at least delay it.

As for money... well, that can mean intra-conference revenue disbursements, or the availability of network funds. A group of teams can break off at the whim of a room full of ESPN executives. If the super-conferences don't bring in the expected revenue, they'll look to see where the revenue is being generated. Underperforming schools will not be invited to the next party. This may happen even IF the super-conference is making money hand over fist. Why make millions when you can make billions? Why make billions when you can make trillions?

I give it 20 years. Max.